TOL's biggest one-day moves since 2021, and what happened next

Describes the past; not a signal. Pre-licensed data — internal estimates, to be re-verified after our licensed data rebuild.

Close-to-close daily changes from 1 Apr 2021 to 4 Nov 2026 (1406 sessions). Later changes are measured from the close on the day of the move.

Biggest one-day falls

Of these 10, 5 were higher 21 sessions later · n = 10 · could be chance.

DateOne-day changeAfter 5 sessionsAfter 21 sessionsAfter 63 sessions
22 May 2024-8.5%+1.2%-0.7%+18.8%
3 Apr 2025-8.0%-5.7%+6.0%+18.5%
7 Mar 2022-7.7%-1.1%-3.3%+2.4%
10 Dec 2024-6.9%-8.8%-13.2%-27.8%
13 Jun 2022-6.7%-4.8%+8.0%-2.1%
12 May 2021-6.6%+0.8%-0.5%+2.2%
7 Feb 2025-6.5%-0.6%-14.1%-16.5%
23 Feb 2022-6.4%+12.2%+1.2%-8.6%
16 Jun 2022-6.3%+8.2%+17.5%+5.4%
7 Apr 2025-6.3%-0.1%+8.6%+28.8%

Biggest one-day rises

Of these 10, 7 were higher 21 sessions later · n = 10 · could be chance.

DateOne-day changeAfter 5 sessionsAfter 21 sessionsAfter 63 sessions
10 Nov 2022+11.0%-2.7%+6.3%+29.0%
20 May 2026+9.8%+1.3%+11.5%+6.5%
14 Dec 2023+9.0%-1.8%-5.8%+13.9%
22 Jul 2025+8.5%-2.9%+3.8%+7.2%
14 Nov 2023+8.0%-1.2%+22.3%+21.4%
25 May 2022+8.0%+5.3%-5.1%+0.3%
7 Dec 2022+7.7%+2.6%+8.3%+16.3%
9 Jan 2026+7.2%+0.9%+10.9%-2.8%
11 Jul 2024+7.2%+8.1%+5.0%+24.4%
16 Jul 2024+7.2%+2.1%-4.2%+16.2%

TOL in the rare moves record