PATH's biggest one-day moves since 2021, and what happened next

Describes the past; not a signal. Pre-licensed data — internal estimates, to be re-verified after our licensed data rebuild.

Close-to-close daily changes from 21 Apr 2021 to 4 Nov 2026 (1393 sessions). Later changes are measured from the close on the day of the move.

Biggest one-day falls

Of these 10, 5 were higher 21 sessions later · n = 10 · could be chance.

DateOne-day changeAfter 5 sessionsAfter 21 sessionsAfter 63 sessions
30 May 2024-34.0%+1.5%+6.7%+6.4%
31 Mar 2022-25.7%-2.4%-14.0%-13.3%
4 Sep 2026-16.6%-3.5%-13.8%pending
13 Mar 2025-15.7%+8.5%+9.0%+27.0%
7 Sep 2022-11.2%+3.5%-1.2%-10.1%
25 May 2023-11.2%+25.7%+16.5%+3.6%
22 Jul 2026-11.1%+17.7%+48.8%+25.5%
5 Jan 2022-10.3%+4.3%-7.3%-44.2%
4 Nov 2025-10.1%+0.7%+29.5%-15.3%
11 Feb 2026-9.7%-4.1%-0.9%-19.0%

Biggest one-day rises

Of these 10, 3 were higher 21 sessions later · n = 10 · could be chance.

DateOne-day changeAfter 5 sessionsAfter 21 sessionsAfter 63 sessions
1 Dec 2023+26.7%-1.6%-9.9%-10.5%
4 Dec 2025+24.4%-2.4%-6.2%-35.2%
9 Oct 2025+18.8%-13.9%-22.7%-11.8%
16 Mar 2023+17.6%-4.0%-5.9%+8.9%
2 Jun 2022+16.7%+4.0%+4.6%-17.7%
13 May 2022+15.4%-1.2%+0.7%+18.1%
11 May 2021+14.4%-2.1%-1.0%-13.3%
6 Oct 2025+12.6%+18.0%-1.7%+19.4%
10 Nov 2022+12.5%+6.7%+10.9%+29.7%
2 Dec 2022+12.5%-10.9%-14.3%+5.1%

PATH in the rare moves record